[F748.Ebook] Ebook Free Interpreting Epidemiologic Evidence: Strategies for Study Design and Analysis, by David A. Savitz

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Evaluating the strength or persuasiveness of epidemiologic evidence is inherently challenging, both for those new to the field and for experienced researchers. There are a myriad of potential biases to consider, but little guidance about how to asses the likely impact on study results. This book offers a strategy for assessing epidemiologic research findings, explicitly describing the goals and products of epidemiologic research in order to better evaluate it successes and limitations. The focus throughout is on practical tools for making optimal use of available data to assess whether hypothesized biases are operative and to anticipate concerns at the point of study design in order to ensure that needed information is generated. Specific tools for assessing the presence and impact of selection bias in both cohort and case-control studies, bias from non-response, confounding, exposure measurement error, disease measurement error, and random error are identified and evaluated. The potential value of each approach as well as its limitations are discussed, using examples from the published literature. Such information should help those who generate and interpret epidemiologic research to apply methodological principles more effectively to substantive issues, leading to a more accurate appraisal of the current evidence and greater clarity about research needs.

• Sales Rank: #751756 in Books
• Published on: 2001-06-15
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 6.10" h x 1.20" w x 9.40" l, 1.37 pounds
• Binding: Hardcover
• 321 pages

Review

"Savitz draws on a vast number of studies to produce insights that will alert readers to mistakes and pitfalls. The author is to be commended for his contributions to the field. I predict that in departments with active research and graduate level studies, the Savitz book will be tattered and torn well before the basic text shows signs of wear." --JAMA

"Savitz has provided us with an elegant perspective on the major concerns in interpreting epidemiologic literature. ..he takes us through all of the major issues in a most readable and logical format, making this book required reading for the novice and the professional. In addition, the book is a primer for policymakers who need to use epidemiologic results in making public health policy decisions. Savitz points out how using planned common sense can bring order to complex datasets and clarity to disparate results and interpretations. ..it will make anyone committed to the field a better epidemioligist." --Epidemiology

"This attractively presented book is extremely useful for professionals and graduate students doing or evaluating epidemiologic research. I have not seen another book like this one that so successfully integrates content and experience. The author has assembled a book that is necessary and essential for all those involved in interpreting epidemiologic evidence."--Doody's

About the Author
David A. Savitz is at University of North Carolina.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Required reading for every epidemiologist
By Joseph Kim
This book by David Savitz is an important and welcome addition to the epidemiologist's library. I started reading it after my first year of doctoral studies but I did not fully appreciate the usefulness of Dr. Savitz's insights until after I started doing independent research as a academic physician-epidemiologist. The book is well-written and presents the various methodologic challenges faced by epidemiologic researchers in a logical and coherent way. The chapter on selection bias is particularly illuminating. Remarkably, all the information is presented in lucid prose without the use of mathematical notation. If you would like to get the most out of your research endeavours, this book is for you. I think it should be required reading for every epidemiologist.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Great writing on epidemiology
By C. Bole
I spoke with David Savitz at a conference the same year I had finished reading this book. He is a very bright scientist, and the book truly illuminates his insight into epidemiology. I was surprised this was not required reading in my PhD program. This book is suitable for graduate level students as well as professionals who conduct or rely on research and want a better understanding of the field.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
good as
By Jane
brought for course. good as expected

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[E817.Ebook] Ebook Download What Engineers Know and How They Know It: Analytical Studies from Aeronautical History (Johns Hopkins Studies in the History of Technology)

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What Engineers Know and How They Know It: Analytical Studies from Aeronautical History (Johns Hopkins Studies in the History of Technology)

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"The biggest contribution of Vincenti's splendidly crafted book may well be that it offers us a believably human image of the engineer". -Technology Review. Johns Hopkins Studies in the History of Technology. Merritt Roe Smith, Series Editor.

• Sales Rank: #239815 in Books
• Published on: 1993-02-01
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.00" h x .79" w x 6.00" l, 1.06 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 336 pages

Review

'Must' reading for all thoughtful engineers and historians of technology, and even for those physical scientists who wonder why engineers frequently act and think differently than do basic scientists.

(American Scientist)

The biggest contribution of Vincenti's splendidly crafted book may well be that it offers us a believably human image of the engineer.

(Technology Review)

The biggest contribution of Vincenti's splendidly crafted book may well be that it offers us a believably human image of the engineer.

(Techology Review)

From the Back Cover
Examining previously unstudied historical cases, Vincenti shows how engineering knowledge is obtained and, in the book's concluding chapters, presents a model to help explain the growth of such knowledge.

Most helpful customer reviews

26 of 27 people found the following review helpful.
a glimpse into engineering information gathering and use
By G W Thielman
One commonly held view of the relationship between scientists and engineers assumes that the latter represent an applied form of the former. Vincenti shatters this notion by showing how engineers develop their knowledge and use that information in the context of the problems they solve. While engineers and scientists share in their formative education a curriculum heavily devoted to mathematics (at least through differential equations) and fundamental physical forces, their priorities diverge at the context of their assigned tasks and in the type and quality of information that can be made available to complete their purposes. In particular, engineering knowledge does not exist for its own sake, in contrast to science.
Vincenti cites several examples from the aeronautics industry. While these descriptions take on an anecdotal character, these collected narratives nonetheless impose his conclusion as well as any philosophical essay could and probably better. In each case, _What_Do_Engineers_Know_?_ demonstrates that incomplete information may yield intermediate results having little or no effect on the intended problem.
The first example relates to a wing design for the B-24. The history of the Davis airfoil design is explained, as well as its incorporation for the B-24 wing. At the time of its adoption, various airfoil shapes had been investigated, and the Davis form subsequently was found to resemble the high performance laminar-flow airfoil. But did this form benefit the B-24 performance. Probably not, answers the author. Laminar flow can be difficult to maintain at the Reynolds numbers typical of modern aircraft, particularly in wartime conditions when surface roughness will likely increase tripping the boundary layer to turbulent (with resulting increased drag -- laminar flow has a thinner boundary layer, but is more prone to flow separation). The B-24 was considered a fine aircraft, in part due to its wing length.
The second example describes flying-quality characteristics and relative design priorities regarding stability and control. (The Wright brothers had emphasized stability in the infancy of manned powered flight.) Designers had to determine what characteristics made an airplane desirable to pilots, and which would consign them to the scrapyard. This ergonomic study evolved as pilot and aircraft capabilities expanded in speed and flight duration. An appendix provides qualitative criteria used to compare stability performance.
The third example compares how thermodynamics is treated by physicists and engineers. The latter employ control volume analysis as developed by Ludwig Prandtl for economy and accuracy rather than the understanding of nature governing thermal energy transfer. The fourth example covers data collection for airplane propellers. Subtle changes in camber, pitch and twist in a design can have subtle or profound effects on efficiency. These were evaluated using empirical studies, in contrast to a more analytical treatment where the contributing second and third order effects are more difficult to distinguish. The fifth example explains the struggles in riveting thin metal sheets with countersunk joints for aircraft production. The establishment of standard head angles required more detailed material behavior for both rivets and attaching sheets than previously known.
Finally Vincenti concludes with a synthesis on how design knowledge develops from functional collections of information. The writing style can be tedious at times, and other times smooth, but this is a matter of personal taste for the reader. While a typical engineer may find some aspects of the work, particularly among the examples, more familiar than other chapters, it nonetheless remains a beneficial insight into how engineering knowledge is acquired, organized and utilized to address the concern at hand.

15 of 16 people found the following review helpful.
Vincenti shows the way technologies mature
By Andy Gibbons (gibbons@cc.usu.edu)
I am an instructional technologist dealing a lot with the design and development of products in a young technology, computer-based instruction. My technology is in its youth compared to other technologies that have become essential to our social and economic operations. I am interested in knowing the stages my technology will go through and the types of knowledge it must accumulate as it matures, which seems certain, given current interest and ferment.
Vincenti describes how aeronautics technologies grew and went through their stages, and this has given me insight into my own. This is not a book of idealized process for implementing technology. It is s set of historical case studies, some of which Vincenti himself participated in, others of which he researched.
The book is not easy to read, but I have found it very rewarding. It is full of technical terms and heavy technology. At the same time, if you pay the price in effort and study this book carefully, you will not be disappointed. You will see how technologies develop, and knowing this, you will be able to anticipate developments and needs in your own area of growth.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
interesting chapters from aeronautical history
By Peter Gasparovic
As Prof. Vincenti points out in the preface, the people interested in the history of aviation may prefer to omit epistemological parts of the book. I must agree. The epistemological part (introduction of the book, introductions and conclusions of the chapters, 50 pages after the chapter 6) is too wordy to my taste. I can't say it isn't interesting (based on what I learned about differences between engineers and scientists I can say that I am engineer) but it is definitely not easy to read (with lot of redundancy and abstraction).

The narrative part of the chapters 2-6 is other case. There are very interesting stories about:
2. airfoil design and use (laminar flow, Davis's airfoil used in B-24 Liberator)
3. flying quality specification
4. development of control volume analysis (in Prandtl's aerodynamics)
5. air-propeller test (by Durand and Lesley)
6. development of flush riveting

The notes in pages 259-318 contain also comprehensive bibliography to all stories.

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[K911.Ebook] Free PDF Human Beginnings in South Africa: Uncovering the Secrets of the Stone Age, by H. J. Deacon, Jeanette Deacon

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In this readable, contemporary account, two of Africa's leading archaeologists present what we have learned about the development of human species in Southern Africa in 150 years of research. Generously illustrated with over 100 photos, drawings, and maps, the Deacons describe our primate ancestors, outline the process of emergence of the modern human species, and follow its development through Khoisan prehistory to the point of European contact. An ideal resource for professionals, text for university students, and reader for avocational archaeology.

• Sales Rank: #1261292 in Books
• Brand: Brand: Altamira Press
• Published on: 1999-04-22
• Ingredients: Example Ingredients
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: 9.42" h x .56" w x 7.04" l, 1.20 pounds
• Binding: Paperback
• 214 pages

Features

• Used Book in Good Condition

Review
A masterly distillation of up-to-date knowledge and views about the evolution of humankind as it is expressed in the archaeology of South Africa. The scope of the work is breathtaking. (Ray Inskeep)

Until now, specialists and lay people who sought a comprehensive, accessible account of South Africa's contributions to global prehistory were limited; Hilary Deacon and Janette Deacon have now filled the gap with a synthesis that is not only authoritative, comprehensive, and up-to-date but that is also eminently readable. The authority of the work stems from the Deacons' deep immersion in South African archaeology over more than thirty-five years and from their internationally recognised original research at numerous South African stone age sites. The text presents archaeological findings in a way that will allow interested readers to form their own opinions. If there is a problem with the book, it is perhaps that it is too modestly titled, for it is a fine introduction to the data and methods of modern stone age archaeology, not just in South Africa, but wherever it might be practised. Students and lay readers will especially appreciate the well-chosen illustrations, the marginal boxes that treat important concepts separately from the main text, and the entertaining, highly personal essays that introduce most chapters. Professionals will value the book for a synthesis that is as concise and lucid as it is thorough. (R.G. Klein South African Archaeological Bulletin)

Hilary and Janette Deacon write a history of the Later Stone Age that is also an account of two long and distinguished careers in science. (Hall, Martin H-Net Reviews)

The Deacons have combined to write a very intelligible synopsis of South African prehistory.... Although intended primarily for beginning students, the book can be read as a review of research in the subcontinent, as was my goal, or to provide a cogent synopsis of hominid evolution or of general stone tool developments. On any level the authors write clearly and offer two lifetimes worth of archaeological insights. (George H. Odell Lithic Technology)

Hilary and Janette Deacon have combined their complementary research interests and skills to write an eloquent, authoritative, and timely modern synthesis of the southern African evidence. They effectively distil an essence of the full scope of the StoneAge archaeological record of South Africa.... Human Beginnings obviated most supplemental readings for my African Prehistory course, which illustrates its extraordinary value as a textbook.... Human Beginnings is a masterful synthesis of the longest archaeological record and provides an effective introduction to modern scientific method and theory, the evolution of human behavior, and current interpretations of the social, symbolic, and economic lifestyles of the ancient Khoisan peoples. It is an indispensable text for Africanists and for any course on African archaeology.. (Stanley H. Ambrose American Antiquity, Vol. 67, No. 3, 2002)

An expert account of the early South African past, which melds science from many disciplines into a compelling multidisciplinary narrative.... A standard work for many years to come. (Fagan, Brian)

Hilary and Janette Deacon have combined their complementary research interests and skills to write an eloquent, authoritative, and timely modern synthesis of the southern African evidence. They effectively distil an essence of the full scope of the Stone Age archaeological record of South Africa.... Human Beginnings obviated most supplemental readings for my African Prehistory course, which illustrates its extraordinary value as a textbook.... Human Beginnings is a masterful synthesis of the longest archaeological record and provides an effective introduction to modern scientific method and theory, the evolution of human behavior, and current interpretations of the social, symbolic, and economic lifestyles of the ancient Khoisan peoples. It is an indispensable text for Africanists and for any course on African archaeology. (Stanley H. Ambrose American Antiquity, Vol. 67, No. 3, 2002)

About the Author
H. J. Deacon has taught at the University of Stellenbosch and lectured widely.
Janette Deacon has held various teaching and research posts and since 1989 has been the archaeologist at the National Monuments Council, South Africa.

Most helpful customer reviews

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Ideal for students and the non-specialist general reader.
By Midwest Book Review
Archaeology has conclusively documented through the discovery of fossil remains of early humans that Africa is the cradle of homosapiens. Human Beginnings In South Africa: Uncovering The Secrets Of The Stone Age surveys 150 years of archaeological research that depicts the progress of paleolithic and neolithic humans, piecing together the evidence showing that the roots of South African society stretch back into the very beginnings of the stone age. Highly recommended for students of archaeology as well as non-specialist general readers with an interest in human origins, Human Beginnings In South Africa presents an up-to-date text that is enhanced with black and white photography, maps and diagrams.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By David D Hartley
book in good condition and is as advertised

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• Sales Rank: #4183151 in Books
• Published on: 2012
• Binding: Paperback

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Improve the precision, accuracy and profitability of your stock market trading strategies by leveraging some of the many market edges that successful traders exploit every day.

Read this book to learn how to:

- Improve the accuracy and profitability of your trading strategies by leveraging statistically proven market edges
- The power of using at least one "set-up" and one "entry signal" when developing trading strategies to tilt the odds in your favor
- Conduct statistical tests to analyze whether your trading ideas has an edge over the overall market or not
- Avoid some of the many mistakes that beginner traders do, such as not taking trading costs into account when backtesting your strategies

Foreword by Stan Bokov, Chief Operating Officer at MultiCharts.

Every market edge presented in Stock Market Edges is based on comprehensive statistical analyses and has been tested across seven different markets (S&P 500 ETF, NASDAQ 100 ETF, FTSE 100 Index, German Stock Index (DAX), Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and the S&P 500 Index) over a period of more than 14 years.

The tests range from simple moving averages to various chart patterns and indices, namely:

- Short-term highs and short-term lows
- The Relative Strength Index
- Consecutive up days and consecutive down days
- Extreme up days and extreme down days
- Daily up gaps and daily down gaps
- Average Directional Index
- The Volatility Index
- Key reversal bars
- 50- and 200-day moving averages
- Advancing and declining issues

The final chapter lays out a very consistent and profitable sample trading strategy, built entirely on set-ups outlined in the book to prove that the edges actually provide the trader with an advantage.

Contrary to most other trading books, expected slippage and commissions have been deducted from the test results for the S&P 500 ETF and the NASDAQ 100 ETF.

All market edges and trading strategies presented in Stock Market Edges can easily be implemented and executed in popular trading platforms such as MultiCharts, TradeStation, NinjaTrader and MetaTrader.

• Sales Rank: #398494 in eBooks
• Published on: 2014-01-15
• Released on: 2014-01-15
• Format: Kindle eBook

About the Author
Philip Reschke has traded the stock market for more than 15 years. He firmly believes that smart short-term trading decisions must be based on quantitative research, not discretionary belief.

Philip has spent a lot of time identifying exploitable stock market edges, some of which he shares with his readers in his first book, Stock Market Edges - A quantitative guide to developing winning trading strategies, published on May 16, 2013.

The book teaches the active trader how to improve the precision, accuracy and profitability of their stock market trading strategies by leveraging some of the many market edges that successful traders exploit every day.

Every market edge presented in Stock Market Edges is based on comprehensive statistical analyses and has been tested across seven different markets (S&P 500 ETF, NASDAQ 100 ETF, FTSE 100 Index, German Stock Index (DAX), Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and the S&P 500 Index) over a period of more than 14 years.

Stock Market Edges was initially released in May 2013 as a Multi Touch book designed exclusively for the iPad and only available in Apple's iBookstore. After big demanded Stock Market Edges was released for Amazon's Kindle as a traditional eBook in Apple's iBookstore. Since its release Stock Market Edges has received an average rating of 4.8 on 80+ reviews across several countries, including the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany and Denmark.

Most helpful customer reviews

21 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
Please write a volume two!
By Manisha
Every market edge presented in Stock Market Edges is supported by comprehensive statistical analyses across seven different markets (S&P 500 ETF, NASDAQ 100 ETF, FTSE 100 Index, German Stock Index (DAX), Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and the S&P 500 Index) and over a period of more than 14 years.

My experience is that only when taking a comprehensive approach to analyzing whether something has a statistical edge or not, is it relevant to consider adding it to your arsenal of trading components.

If you cannot follow the rules of your own trading strategy, but let your emotions get the better of you, most traders will end up in the bucket of 90-95% of traders who consistently lose money trading the markets. The primary reason why trading psychology is such an important aspect of successful trading is that one has to learn to trade against our human instinct. In Stock Market Edges the author shows that one must be a buyer when everyone else is selling and be a seller when everyone else is buying.

I especially like the section about using a set-up and an entry signal to time my trades. As the author says: "Developing a trading strategy that relies on a set-up and an entry signal will, with all likelihood, increase the precision, accuracy and profitability of your strategy. Whether it does so or not will largely depend on whether you use a set-up and an entry signal with a statistically proven edge."

Enjoy the book as I am sure it will teach even experienced traders, such as me, something new.

12 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Traders will like the statistical edge
By Sudarshan Sukhani
The book discusses quantified edges available in the stock market. Tests are conducted on the major stock market indices, (NASDAQ, S&P500, FTSE, DAX) which makes the tests fairly diversified. A real and sustainable edge is provided by the methods in the book. A discussion on setups and entry alone is worth many times the modest price of this book.

I am surprised at a one star review given by someone. The person has not read the book, or may not be a trader.

Buy it, read it and profit from it.

10 of 10 people found the following review helpful.
This stuff works- Seriously !
By E Chun
I have always thought a quantitative approach to trading was the only way to go but I have been struggling to build strategies that had a consistent edge. This changed after I read Stock Market Edges.

Stock Market Edges test 10 different patterns/indicators across 6 different markets. The findings are incredible - several of them gives one an edge on many of the markets, even after estimated trading costs.

I am using MultiCharts/Interactive Brokers as my primary trading platform so developing strategies based on some of the edges was easy. My findings were impressing. I have finally been able to build a strategy with a consistent edge across both the QQQ and the SPY.

Thanks to writing this one of a kind book. I learned a lot and now believe that I can make it as a trader.

Highly recommended.

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• Published on: 1963
• Binding: Hardcover

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• Sales Rank: #205600 in Books
• Brand: iP
• Published on: 2006-01-31
• Format: CD-ROM
• Original language: English
• Number of items: 1
• Dimensions: .30" h x 5.30" w x 7.40" l,
• Binding: CD-ROM
• 1 pages

Features

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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
One Star
By Amazon Customer
does not work on new operating systems

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
One Star
By E Sank
Did not work with my Dell Inspiron, which is running off of Windows 7.

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One Star
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just one chapter can be open

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